The Bay Area's Smart Growth Strategy and Regional Livability Footprint Project is now moving into its final stages, as regional agency boards and commissions are being asked to endorse the plans and proposals which have emerged from the process begun over two years ago (see August/September 2001 issue). The five regional agencies which collaborated on the project were the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD), the Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC), the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) and the San Francisco Bay Regional Water Quality Control Board (RWQCB).
The Smart Growth Strategy planning process was integrated with the Regional Livability Footprint Project developed by the Bay Area Alliance for Sustainable Communities, a coalition of groups and agencies established in 1997 to develop and implement a sustainability plan for the Bay Area. Its Steering Committee included ABAG, the Bay Area Council, Sierra Club, Urban Habitat, and PG&E, representing stakeholders from the "3 E's" Economy, Environment, and (social) Equity.
Regional growth statistics based on smart growth principles, and the update of the regional transportation plan, will be the first products of the new approach. Agencies and local governments have been evaluating new forecasts of future growth developed by ABAG, titled Projections `03. These forecasts are based on the results of regional workshops and incorporate incentives for smart growth, taking into account development trends and patterns that ABAG considers realistic for the region.
Projections `03 predictions on housing units diverge from previous forecasts in 2010, with additional housing units resulting from new smart growth policies predicted in the region. Over 25 years this could result in 90,000 more units, an increase of about 18% over the number predicted with current growth patterns. Based on the increase in housing within the region, commuting from outside the region is predicted to grow more slowly, at about 35% over the 25-year period compared to a rate of almost 90% if current trends continue.
After review and comment by local jurisdictions, congestion management agencies, the Bay Area Alliance for Sustainable Communities and other interested groups, ABAG adopted the final forecasts in March 2003. The projections will be updated every two years, and adjustments will be made to reflect the extent to which the smart growth vision is actually being realized through incentives, regulatory changes, and regional and local planning activities.
MTC will use the forecasts for transportation planning and modeling for the 2005 revision of the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and other projects. A recent MTC memo notes that the 2005 RTP "will need to consider policies, incentives and regulatory changes that would be needed to support smart growth". The RTP will also need to be coordinated with air quality planning, including the Ozone Attainment Strategy (see Strategy for Ozone Reduction) . By incorporating the Smart Growth Strategy results, both land use and air quality planning can be integrated with transportation planning in the RTP, moving toward a regional plan which incorporates smart growth.
Acknowledging the need for regional agency coordination to implement the Smart Growth vision, MTC commissioners who participated in the Smart Growth Strategy Steering Committee have transferred oversight of the Smart Growth work to the Regional Agencies Coordinating Committee (RACC) which already includes three of the five regional agencies (see What Is RACC?). At their February meeting, RACC members established a process to incorporate the Steering Committee members, including BCDC, RWQCB, and Bay Area Alliance representatives, as participants in the Smart Growth segment of RACC meetings.
To guide the implementation of the Smart Growth vision, agencies have been asked to endorse the Smart Growth Preamble and Policies. This document was developed by the five regional agencies together with the Bay Area Alliance for Sustainable Communities. The policies emerged from issues raised by participants in the regional workshops, and are intended to address housing, development, open space preservation, environmental protection, infrastructure, mobility choices, cooperation among jurisdictions, economic vitality, and social equity. They are "consistent with widely accepted notions of smart growth", according to the Preamble, and "provide a framework for decision- making".
The Bay Area Alliance developed a Draft Compact for Sustainable Development which is a counterpart to the Smart Growth Preamble and Policies. It identified ten regional challenges together with strategies for improvement: economy, housing, transportation, natural resources, energy efficiency and pollution reduction, neighborhood revitalization, education, health and safety, governmental fiscal reform, and civic engagement. The final version, titled Compact for a Sustainable Bay Area, will guide Bay Area Alliance action to implement sustainability policies in the region over the next few years.
Progress toward sustainability and smart growth will be measurable through changes in the ABAG Projections, and through comparison with benchmarks contained in a "quality of life report card" created for the United Way by the Bay Area Alliance and the Northern California Council for the Community. The report card is arranged to complement the Compact for a Sustainable Bay Area, and measures indicators such as housing supply and affordability, per capita water consumption, household income, school spending, arrest rates and commute times.
Even after all the endorsements, the Compact and the Preamble and Policies could sit on a shelf and the Report Card could merely become a reminder of where the region has been, unless participants successfully shift into implementation of the plans and policies. It will be important to focus on the RACC, where the agencies and the Bay Area Alliance will continue to meet to guide agency action, and to watch the progress of regional plans, such as the RTP, before declaring the birth of a true regional planning process.
Leslie Stewart
For more information:
Alex Amoroso, ABAG, 510-464-7900; alexa@abag.ca.gov
Valerie Knepper, MTC, 510-464-7821; vknepper@mtc.ca.gov
Bay Area Alliance for Sustainable Communities, 510-464-7978; infoBAA@BayAreaAlliance.org